Whewell’s Gazette: Year 2, Vol. #39 | Whewell's Ghost
In doing so, we've been able to generate a some great information regarding the Wiltshire Bat Group meeting, Thursday 8th November Health Agency, after being checked for diseases, Devon, UK, March Model released. Nick, who has worked with Sir David Attenborough and produced many. Great expanses of the Earth were beckoning the intrepid to put their footprints on untrodden It defeated a British team in near where Venezuela, Brazil and Guyana meet, offer a host of staggeringly hard tests. . not least thanks to sponsorship; witness David Attenborough and Alastair Fothergill. Attenborough first filmed on the Great Barrier Reef for Zoo Quest in , and has retained a He meets some of the tiny coral animals that built the reef and helped to turn it into an Atlantic Productions Limited.
We have reached a stage where the amount of resources needed to sustain our population exceeds what is available, argues Professor John Guillebaud from University College London. Many years ago, as a second year medical student, I attended a lecture on human population by my tutor at Cambridge, Colin Bertram. If we allow unremitting population growth to continue we humans cannot escape the same fate; however cleverly we might adapt to all the different environments on earth, we only have one finite planet to live on and 70 per cent of it is salt water, and half of the remainder is desert, mountain, icecap or fast-disappearing forest.
I felt some guilt that doctors had inadvertently caused the population problem through vastly better death control while birth rates remained high. I decided that, as an about-to-be doctor, I should try to restore balance, and what more appropriate medical specialty could there be than family planning? So I arranged higher training in gynaecology specialising in hormonal and intrauterine contraception and also in surgery hence my career total of vasectomies and ongoing research into a new male pill.
Will the imbalance be corrected by literally billions of deaths or by fewer births? John Guillebaud None of us in those days was worried specifically about climate change. Even so, that is far from being the only life-threatening global problem.
Reliable reports on the planet's health such as The United Nations' Global Environment Outlook have found water, land, plants, animals and fish stocks are all 'in inexorable decline'. Already by it was calculated that 97 per cent of all vertebrate flesh on land was human flesh plus that of our food animals cows, pigs, sheep etcleaving just three per cent for all wild vertebrate species on land.
Not to mention the obliteration of wild life in the oceans through acidification, pollution and massive over-fishing. The bad news is that despite this, the 58 highest fertility countries are projected to triple their numbers by In a majority of all countries there is also persistent population momentum created by 'bulges' of young people born in high fertility years. Therefore, the UN warns bluntly that world population, now well over seven billion 'has reached a stage where the amount of resources needed to sustain it exceeds what is available'.
The annual population increase of over 80 million equates to a city for 1. This is not exactly a bundle of laughs, yet it is solidly evidence-based, as any impartial scientific observer will attest. What are the prospects of finding another planet for humans to plunder by ? How strange, given the evidence, that population growth and contraception remain largely taboo. Those who consume way beyond their share, the rich over-consumers in every country, must certainly massively reduce their environmental footprints, but the 'number of feet' is also relevant.
I was the only academic there. In the evening, went to the Healthwatch dinner and saw the Healthwatch award given to Dr Mark Porter. It often features the excellent Dr Margaret McCartney she got the award in After the dinner we had an interesting discussion of the misinterpetation of P values I maintain that the simplified version that they gave in the programme was oversimplified.
Spent two hours being filmed for a BBC documentary on "supplements".
The presenter, Fiona Phillipsgave me an easy ride, and seemed genuinely interested. Heaven knows how much will end up in the final documentary out next year 14 November Being asked to do that sort of thing seems to be a penalty of age.
Category - DocuWiki
It went on-line today, under the title " Bibliometricians are really the curse of the age " that was the quotation that they chose. Went to see Suffragette. A really good movie. The idea was to meet the new president, Venki Ramakrishnan. He seemed to be a really nice bloke, gently spoken, very sensible. Got some really good questions -they seem to be particularly interested in the misinterpretation of P values.
That topic seems to be getting through to a wide range of people, judging by the fact that the paper, An investigation of the false discovery rate and the misinterpretation of p-valueshas had 91, full text views and 11, pdf downloads in little more than a year 6 December A colleague is fostering a new kitten.
The note was to tell me that the paper was number 33 in the top altmetric scores for Ironically, the discussion of the paper includes the words "The mis-assessment of individuals by silly bibliometric methods has contributed to this harm. At the dinner I got presented with the Wellcome Gold Medal. Although my days in single channel analyis are now almost done, it was nice to have past work recognised. At least half of the credit for this prize belongs to the ace probabilist, Alan Hawkeswithout whose brilliant mathematics most of the work would have been impossible.
Log fire, grandma 94 on phone to her grandson, christmas tree and The Snowman. To my astonishment, it was sent to me by the sister of the late Stefan Grimm.
The Gate of the Year – Minnie Louise Haskins (1875-1957)
I really hope that she, and her mother, manage to find happiness in See more details in my post On Archibald Vivien Hill and the honours list.
Some of my friends had already declined. The hosts were genial enough but clueless. They seemed to think that there was some sort of controversy. There was also a psychologist who thought everything as explained by powerful placebo effects. He points out that disgreements about interpretation are about Bayesian vs Bayesian rather than frequentist vs Bayesian. He was a delightful person as well as something of a hero to me. The meeting was arranged through twitter. Very conveniently, the paper reachedfull text views on the Sunday before the talk.
That provided another good excuse to point out the silliness of trying to judge quality of work by bibliometrics. Having advertised the talk on Facebook and Twitter. Schild lecture theatre formerly the Pharmacology theatre might be too small, so it was held in the second largest theatre in the Cruciform building the former hospital and that proved to be about right. Must be getting old, dammit. The execrable Pitillo report recommended statutory regulation of herbalists, and degree level qualifications.
InI wrote A very bad report: Subsequently, I wrote several times about this report, In the Times inand in the British Medical Journal in Responses were printed in the BMJ in I also submtted a reponse to the consultation on the Pittlo report, Luckily all this opposition caused the government to kick the matter into touch, yet again. My heart sank when I saw its membership Annex A. This committee, or at least it chair, David Walker the deputy chief medical officer produced an excellent report which identified all the absurdities if trying use statutory regulation on a form of medicine that has produced not a single useful treatment, That seemed to end the matter for good and I wrote up the saga in Herbs get the push: I had onll one ally, Dick Taverne.
Everybody else was some sort of advocate of quackery. It remains to be seen if he can resist the incessant pressure from the industry, and David Tredinnick MP. It was followed by a meet-the-media reception, 12 February A short interview about cough medicines.
It was made by 7 Wonder for the BBC.
It was meant to be shown today, but got cut at the last minute. She wanted to talk about the time, in the late s, when the senior common room at UCL voted to admit women. You can see it on YouTube. There is a booklet that describes the exhibition.
This is what Kristina Clackson Bonnington produced about my own small contribution. And the crowd at the exhibition. Kristina is talking to sculptor Edward Allington in the big hat.
My article in the 2nd issue seemed to provoke some interest. He was the secon foreign postdoc in my erstwhile lab, and went on to be very successful. There is a real danger that this will lead to "cluching at straws".
It was our first visit to Shrewsbury -an attractive town. The food at the Lion and Pheasant was great quality and pricethough a bit lacking in quantity, not least the Welsh lamb.
On the drive to Gregynog, we saw lots of Welsh lamb. This only exacerbated my guilt at having eaten lamb the previous evening. Gregynog Hall was the site of a 52nd Gregynog Statistical conference organised by the University of Warwick.
The last time I was there was for the 26th conference inwhen I talked about " Looking at single molecules: That was just before Alan Hawkes found the exact solution to the missed events problem, so allowing us to do maximum likelihood fits, This time it was "The misinterpretation of P values and the reproducibility of science: The abstract booklet has some history of the Gregynog estate.
My abstract was as follows. They do what it says on the tin. The problem lies in the fact that what they do is not what experimenters want.