a emitir avisos regulares sobre o ciclone tropical “22S”. a tempestade emergiu no Canal de Moçambique e. nerável no que respeita a ciclones, cheias, secas e tempestades tropicais. . ou, através de pedido, a partir da UN-Habitat Moçambique,. Malawi e . 24 fev. UNICEF MoçambiqueVerified account. @UNICEF_Moz. Para cada criança, esperança! Mozambique. Joined February
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Partilhar Facebook Google Imprimir E-mail. Despite its proximity to the African continent approximately 25 nmland interaction is having minimal impact. The current intensity is now assessed at knots based on pgtw and fmee Dvorak current intensity estimates.
Tropical Cyclone Funso (08S) | PembaAtolL
Tropjcais level analysis shows a self-induced meso-anticyclone over the low level circulation center LLCC providing ample outflow aloft while maintaining low vertical wind shear.
The latest numerical model guidance is split on the track solution.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Although GFS unrealistically turns the storm more southwestward towards Mozambique in the early Taus, it is more in agreement with the European model solutions overall.
A z ssmis 91ghz image depicts tightly-curved banding and vigorous eyewall convection. The long range probabilistic ensemble models indicate that recurvature is still a possibility beyond the current forecast range. Create a free website or blog at WordPress. The models indicating a fast recurve scenario forecast a strong trough to move through around tau 48 whereas the slow scenario solutions forecast a weaker, negatively tilted trough which has little impact on the str allowing tc 08s to continue tracking towards the coast.
Due to the complex and competing steering mechanisms, tc 08s is forecast to slow down in the extended Taus. The recent mb analysis continues to show a weak trough moving eastward over south Africa. Maximum significant wave height at z is 21 feet. A z ssmis image reveals the inner core has tightly curved banding and deep convection consolidating around the low level circulation center LLCC with vigorous convection extending eastward to near the coast of Madagascar.
Maximum significant wave height at z is 32 feet. Animated water vapor imagery shows a weakening poleward outflow over the past 12 hours with a region of upper level subsidence and the loss of outflow into troughing located southeast of tc 08s. Additionally, as tc 08s tracks southeastward back over the open waters of the Mozambique Channel, it is expected to further intensify slightly, peaking at knots. Following the trough passage, the str should re-build south of the system in the extended Taus.
Upper level analysis indicates that tc 08s has favorable conditions for continued intensification with minimal vertical wind shear vws values of 5 knots or less and excellent radial outflow depicted in animated water vapor satellite imagery.
A z ssmis image reveals the inner core has tightly curved banding and deep convection consolidating around the low level circulation center LLCC with vigorous convection extending eastward to near the coast of Madagascar. Upper level analysis indicates that tc 08s has favorable conditions for continued intensification with minimal vertical wind shear vws values of 5 knots or less and excellent radial outflow depicted in animated water vapor satellite imagery.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery msi shows the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle with a 15 nm eye. The upper-level trough is forecast to rapidly propagate eastward, and is not expected to deepen enough to provide a re-curve mechanism for tc 08s.
Bacia de formação de ciclones tropicais
Tropical cyclone tc 08s funsolocated near O Ciclone Tropical Funso 08Sagora com o centro localizado em Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates that tc 08s has undergone rapid intensification over the past six hours and now has a well defined 8 nm diameter eye.
The current position is based on the SSMI image and fixes on the infrared eye with good confidence. This forecast is in-line with the model consensus. Radial outflow appears to be improving along the equatorward outflow channel.
Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content remain highly favorable until tc 08s reaches about 25 degrees south latitude. Tc 08s is embedded within a weak, yet complex steering environment and has been quasi-stationary as it is constrained by subtropical ridges str positioned to the east and poleward.
Tropical cyclone tc 08s, located approximately nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked southeastward at 03 knots over the past six hours.
Intensity is based on Dvorak estimates from pgtw indicating knots. Tc 08s is forecast to initially track southward, then turn more southwesterly after tau 48 as the subtropical ridge str to the south becomes the more dominant steering mechanism.
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